SUN DAY CAMPAIGN
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Brief News Update & Analysis
SOLAR IS 78% OF NEW US GENERATING CAPACITY YTD
AND THE LARGEST SOURCE OF NEW CAPACITY
FOR 13 MONTHS STRAIGHT
AT 11% OF NEW CAPACITY, WIND ADDED MORE
THAN NATURAL GAS & NUCLEAR POWER COMBINED
MIX OF ALL RENEWABLES HAS PROVIDED
90% OF NEW CAPACITY IN 2024 YTD
For Release: Monday, December 2, 2024
Contact: Ken Bossong, 301-588-4741
Washington DC – A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data newly released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reveals that the mix of renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) accounted for almost 90% of total U.S. electrical generating capacity added in the first three-quarters of 2024. Moreover, September was the thirteenth month in a row in which solar was the largest source of new capacity.
Renewables were 82.4% of new generating capacity in September and 89.6% in first three-quarters of 2024:
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” (with data through September 30, 2024), FERC says 47 “units” of solar totaling 1,786 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in September along with two units of wind (156-MW) and one unit of hydropower (1-MW). Combined they accounted for 82.4% of all new generating capacity added during the month. Natural gas provided the balance: 410-MW. [1]
During the first nine months of 2024, solar and wind added 18,635-MW and 2,626-MW respectively. Combined with 213-MW of hydropower and 6-MW of biomass, renewables were 89.6% of capacity added. The balance consisted of the 1,100 Vogtle-4 nuclear reactor in Georgia plus 1,387-MW of gas, 11-MW of oil, and 8-MW of “other.”
Solar was 75.7% of new capacity in September and 77.7% during the first nine months of 2024:
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for thirteen months straight: September 2023 – September 2024.
The new solar capacity added from January through September accounted for 77.7% of all new generation placed into service for the period.
In September alone, solar comprised 75.7% of all new capacity added.
Adjusting for the differences in capacity factors among solar, nuclear power, and natural gas, the new solar capacity added thus far in 2024 is likely to generate more than four times as much electricity as the new nuclear capacity and over five times as much as might be expected from the new natural gas capacity. [2]
Solar plus wind are now more than 21% of U.S. generating capacity; all renewables combined are 30.3%:
New wind capacity accounted for much of the balance YTD (10.9%) which is more than the new natural gas capacity (5.8%) and nuclear power capacity (4.6%) combined. New solar capacity is approximately seven and one-half times that of the combination of natural gas and nuclear power.
Taken together, the installed capacities of just solar (9.4%) and wind (11.8%) now constitute more than one-fifth (21.2%) of the nation’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity: wind – 11.8%; solar – 9.4%.
However, approximately 30% of U.S. solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that is not reflected in FERC’s data. [3] Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind closer to a quarter of the nation’s total.
With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%) and geothermal (0.3%), renewables now claim a 30.3% share of total U.S. utility-scale generating capacity.
Solar’s share of installed U.S. generating capacity is greater than either nuclear power or hydropower:
The latest capacity additions have brought solar’s share of total available installed utility-scale (i.e., >1-MW) generating capacity up to 9.4%, further expanding its lead over nuclear power (7.9%) as well as hydropower (7.7%).
Installed utility-scale solar has now moved into fourth place – behind natural gas (43.4%), coal (15.5%) and wind (11.8%) - for its share of generating capacity.
Solar will soon become the second largest source of U.S. generating capacity:
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between October 2024 and September 2027 total 94,491-MW – an amount more than four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,711-MW), the second fastest growing resource. FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (1,290-MW), biomass (124-MW), and geothermal (90-MW).
Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources would total 118,706-MW with solar comprising nearly 80% and wind providing another 19%.
On the other hand, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast while coal, oil, and natural gas are projected to contract by 19,863-MW, 2,244-MW, and 1,145-MW respectively.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by October 1, 2027, solar will account for nearly one-sixth (15.5%) of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.0%) or wind (12.6%) and substantially more than either nuclear power (7.4%) or hydropower (7.3%).
In fact, assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar is likely to surpass coal and wind within the next two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity – behind only natural gas.
Meanwhile, the mix of all renewables is adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. Thus, by September 30, 2027, renewables would account for 36.7% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity - rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.3%) - with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity.
The combined capacities of all renewables, including small-scale solar, remain on track to exceed natural gas within three years:
As noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that is factored in, within three years, total U.S. solar capacity (i.e., small-scale plus utility-scale) is likely to surpass 300-GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then exceed 40% of total installed capacity while natural gas’ share would drop to about 37%.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 216,989-MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 66,308-MW of new wind, 9,131-MW of new hydropower, 199-MW of new geothermal, and 195-MW of new biomass. By contrast, net new natural gas capacity potentially in the three-year pipeline totals just 18,029-MW. Thus, renewables’ share could be even greater by early fall 2027.
"New solar capacity added in 2024 thus far will produce more electricity than will be generated by new nuclear power and natural gas additions," noted the SUN DAY Campaign's executive director Ken Bossong. "Unless derailed by the incoming Trump Administration, solar - which has now been top dog for 13 months straight - is poised to continue dominating capacity additions for at least the next three years."
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Source:
FERC's 6-page "Energy Infrastructure Update for September 2024" was released on November 29, 2024, and can be found at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/
For the information cited in this update, see the tables entitled "New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion)," "Total Available Installed Generating Capacity," and "Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements."
Notes:
[1] Generating capacity is not the same as actual generation. Fossil fuels and nuclear power generally have higher "capacity factors" than do wind and solar (see Note #2 below).
[2] EIA reports capacity factors in calendar year 2023 for nuclear power and combined-cycle natural gas plants were 93.0% and 59.7% respectively while those for wind and utility-scale solar PV were 33.2% and 23.2%. See Tables 6.07.A and 6.07.B in EIA's most recent "Electric Power Monthly" report.
[3] In a September 12, 2023 news release, EIA states: “More than one-third of U.S. solar power capacity is small-scale solar. … We expect small-scale solar capacity … will grow from 44-GW in June 2023 to 55-GW by the end of 2024.” See: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/
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The SUN DAY Campaign is a non-profit research and educational organization founded in 1992 to support a rapid transition to 100% reliance on sustainable energy technologies as a cost-effective alternative to nuclear power and fossil fuels and as a solution to climate change. Follow on Twitter (or “X”): @SunDayCampaign
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