Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Another Big Data Center Win for Nuclear

This is literally not a “win” nor a “deal” nor “historic.” It's not an agreement. It's non-binding. As I noted here:


The original press release (here) has a full 3 paragraphs of disclaimer (!) about the meaningless nature of "Forward-Looking Statements.”

Forward-Looking Statements  
This press release includes statements that express Oklo’s opinions, expectations, objectives, beliefs, plans, intentions, strategies, assumptions, forecasts or projections regarding future events or future results and therefore are, or may be deemed to be, “forward-looking statements.” The words “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intends,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “possible,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “should,” “would” or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology, and similar expressions may identify forward-looking statements, but the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. They appear in a number of places throughout this press release and include statements regarding our intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the timing, goals and benefits of the Master Agreement, results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies and the markets in which Oklo operates. Such forward-looking statements are based on information available as of the date of this press release, and current expectations, forecasts and assumptions, and involve a number of judgments, risks and uncertainties.

As a result of a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties, the actual results or performance of Oklo may be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. The following important risk factors could affect Oklo’s future results and cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements: risks related to the deployment of Oklo’s powerhouses; the risk that Oklo is pursuing an emerging market, with no commercial project operating, regulatory uncertainties; the potential need for financing to construct plants, market, financial, political and legal conditions; the effects of competition; changes in applicable laws or regulations; the risk that the Master Agreement fails to produce the expected benefits; and the outcome of any government and regulatory proceedings and investigations and inquiries.

The foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. You should carefully consider the foregoing factors and the other risks and uncertainties of the other documents filed by Oklo from time to time with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release and in any document incorporated by reference are based on current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effects on Oklo. There can be no assurance that future developments affecting Oklo will be those that Oklo has anticipated. Oklo undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.  


On Dec 30, 2024, at 6:24 PM, Sara Barczak wrote:

Thanks to Tom Corlett for his original post. Very long article with lots of info (and hype per usual), but worth a full read. HALEU mentioned as well, the ADVANCE Act, and more...
Take care all,
Sara Barczak

==============


https://www.powermag.com/another-big-data-center-win-for-nuclear-oklo-and-switch-sign-historic-12-gw-deal/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=0184G4259856B5E

Another Big Data Center Win for Nuclear: Oklo and Switch Sign Historic 12 GW Deal

Sonal Patel Power Magazine 

December 29, 2024

Advanced nuclear firm Oklo has partnered with Switch, a Las Vegas-based data center designer, builder, and operator, to deploy 12 GW of Aurora powerhouses through 2044 in a  historic deal hailed as “one of the largest corporate clean power agreements ever signed.”

The two companies announced a groundbreaking Master Power Agreement on Dec. 18 to establish a framework for the collaboration. Under its terms, Oklo is set to develop, build, and operate powerhouses across the U.S. through a series of power purchase agreements (PPAs). While non-binding at this stage, the agreement envisions that individual binding agreements “will be finalized as project milestones are reached,” Oklo said.

A Historic 12 GW Deal For Nuclear

The deal marks yet another stunning milestone in the tech sector’s rapid shift toward clean energy. As POWER has reported, the tech industry is on a mission to secure reliable, round-the-clock power to fuel its rapidly growing operations while fulfilling ambitious sustainability goals. While data centers consumed 150 TWh of electricity in the U.S. and 340 TWh globally in 2023, projections indicate a dramatic surge by 2030, albeit at varying rates. However, the quest is compounded by urgency and the limited capacity of utilities to accommodate soaring demand. A recent EPRI survey suggests that the power industry is already grappling with the challenge of integrating large new loads from data centers.

Most corporate power agreements have so far prioritized renewables. In May, Microsoft secured a global renewable energy framework with asset manager Brookfield, targeting the development of over 10.5 GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2030. That agreement, which—before the Oklo-Switch deal—was nearly eight times larger than the largest single corporate PPA ever signed, seeks to decarbonize Microsoft’s cloud operations through a mix of wind, solar, and emerging carbon-free energy technologies.

Interest in advanced nuclear power as a potential future resource to power artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data centers has surged significantly over the past few months, cemented by a series of groundbreaking commitments between the two sectors. Tech giants cite an assortment of drivers for the preference, even though advanced nuclear remains in developmental stages. For companies like Google, advanced nuclear promises to allay the dual pressures of surging energy demands and decarbonization goals, but it also offers scalability with modular designs and simplified construction, smaller footprints, and inherent safety features. The approach could reduce timelines, increase flexibility in deployment locations, and improve the predictability of project delivery.

In September 2024, Microsoft and Constellation Energy committed $1.6 billion to restart the Unit 1 reactor of the shuttered Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania by 2028, now known as the Crane Clean Energy Center. Then, in October, Google signed a Master Plant Development Agreement to facilitate the development of a 500-MW fleet of Kairos Power molten salt nuclear reactors by 2035 to power Google’s data centers.

That same week, Amazon said it would back the deployment of 5 GW of new X-energy small modular reactors projects, starting with an initial four-unit 320-MWe Xe-100 plant with regional utility Energy Northwest in central Washington. It also signed an agreement with Dominion Energy to explore a 300-MW SMR near Virginia’s North Anna Power Station to fulfill soaring power needs projected from Northern Virginia’s so-called “Data Center Alley,” which is already the world’s largest data center market.

Earlier this month, Meta announced plans to release a request for proposals (RFP) targeting 1 GW to 4 GW of new nuclear generation capacity in the U.S. by the early 2030s. “We believe working with partners who will ultimately permit, design, engineer, finance, construct, and operate these power plants will ensure the long-term thinking necessary to accelerate nuclear technology,” the company said.

Switch, a prominent data center developer founded in 2000 by CEO Rob Roy, operates several large-scale data center campuses across the U.S., including in Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. The company, which specializes in cutting-edge, energy-efficient data center design, says it has powered its operations with 100% renewable energy since 2016, consuming nearly 1 TWh annually.

“The relationship with Oklo underscores our commitment to deploying advanced nuclear power at a transformative scale for our data centers, further enhancing our offerings of one of the world’s most advanced data center infrastructures to current and future Switch clients,” said Switch Founder and CEO Roy on Wednesday.“By utilizing Oklo’s powerhouses, we aim to ensure that Switch remains the leader in data center sustainability while supporting our vision of energy abundance.”

A Giant New Prospect for Oklo

For Oklo, the deal marks a monumental opportunity to solidify its leadership in the burgeoning advanced nuclear landscape. While the company continues to mature its liquid metal-cooled fast nuclear reactor technology—with intent to begin operation of the first powerhouse in Idaho in 2027—it is notably pursuing a “full value chain” approach. A key facet involves managing the design, build, and operation of smaller reactors through PPAs—essentially allowing Oklo to maintain greater control over costs and risk management.

“This Master Agreement highlights Oklo’s business model of simplifying clean energy access by selling power, not power plants,” the company said. “It offers customers a direct, flexible pathway to clean, reliable, and affordable advanced nuclear energy.”

INSERT ART. Oklo’s Aurora Powerhouse is a vertically oriented compact passive fast-spectrum reactor derived from the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) that uses liquid metal as a coolant. The company recently uprated its design’s capacity offerings to 15 MWe and 100 MWe. The compact fast reactor uses a high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) metallic uranium-zirconium fuel enriched to about 19%. Courtesy: OkloOklo’s Aurora Powerhouse is a vertically oriented compact passive fast-spectrum reactor derived from the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) that uses liquid metal as a coolant. The company recently uprated its design’s capacity offerings to 15 MWe and 100 MWe. The compact fast reactor uses a high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) metallic uranium-zirconium fuel enriched to about 19%. Courtesy: Oklo

Oklo says it already currently holds a customer pipeline of 2.1 GW, bolstered by a series of agreements across diverse sectors. Past partnerships include a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to supply electricity from its planned Aurora powerhouses in Southern Ohio and a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) with Diamondback Energy to provide 50 MW over a 20-year PPA for operations in the Permian Basin. Oklo was also selected by the Defense Logistics Agency Energy to site a microreactor at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska, pending final procedural adjustments.

Under recent deals, Oklo has partnered with Equinix through a $25 million pre-payment for a 20-year PPA to deliver up to 500 MW of clean energy for its data centers. The company also has a non-binding LOI with Prometheus Hyperscale to supply 100 MW for a cutting-edge data center campus over two decades. In November, meanwhile, the company said it signed LOIs with two (unnamed) major data center providers for up to 750 MW.

Its new 12-GW multi-decade partnership with Switch represents a transformative leap—and distinctively dwarfs previous deals—in terms of potential market impact. “This enduring relationship over several decades will help accelerate Oklo’s early powerhouse deployments and also position the Company to scale in response to a growing demand pipeline,” Oklo noted on Wednesday. “This Master Agreement enables Oklo to leverage Switch’s best-in-class execution while developing the financial and infrastructure model for scaling advanced nuclear.”

Scaling Up: Overcoming Fuel and Licensing Hurdles

Still, like others in the advanced nuclear industry, Oklo still faces challenges before it can scale its technology to meet growing energy demands. Its hurdles hover over two key issues—fuel and licensing.

Aurora powerhouses will require high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), a material with a limited commercial supply chain in the U.S. To fuel its first 15-MWe commercial plant, slated to deploy in 2027 at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), it is developing the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility (AFFF), a facility collocated at INL, that will fabricate fuel using HALEU awarded through a cooperative agreement with INL. The facility in October garnered the DOE’s approval of its Conceptual Safety Design Report (CSDR). And while Oklo already also has a partnership with Centrus Energy, which is demonstrating HALEU production, its future plans involve building a commercial-scale fuel recycling facility.

“We are uniquely positioned here since only fast reactors can take recycled fuel and fresh HALEU,” Oklo recently told POWER. “The scalability of advanced fuel recycling is central to our strategy. We recently completed the first end-to-end demonstration of the key stages of our advanced fuel recycling process in collaboration with Argonne and INL. This success represents a critical step toward scaling our recycling capabilities and deploying a commercial facility capable of increasing advanced reactor fuel supplies. Our approach not only enhances fuel cost effectiveness but also contributes to long-term sustainability by diversifying fuel sources,” it said.

On the licensing front, Oklo has notably championed regulatory movement. It submitted the first-ever combined license application (COLA) to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for an advanced non-light water reactor (LWR) in March 2020 (for its 15-MWe INL facility). Though the NRC denied that application in January 2022, the company has continued its extensive engagement with NRC staff. It expects to submit a new COLA—“a model for future applications” to the NRC in 2025. Subsequent COLAs could follow soon, in late 2025 and early 2026.

This time around, the company may have the benefit of the 2024 ADVANCE Act, which introduces key provisions that could expedite the process, including fee reductions—potentially cutting Oklo’s hourly licensing costs by more than 50%—and faster NRC reviews for reactors with unique safety features, like Oklo’s design. In addition, the company is “well-positioned to receive regulatory awards [outlined in the ADVANCE ACT] that would make licensing early plants essentially free,” it has noted.

According to Jacob DeWitte, co-founder and CEO of Oklo, the company’s historic agreement with Switch only adds more impetus to its prospects. “Rob Roy and the Switch team share the vision we have for nuclear energy’s role in powering artificial intelligence and providing the world with energy abundance,” he noted on Wednesday. Oklo, he said, expects “to benefit enormously from Switch’s record of turning visions into reality.”

The agreement’s multi-decade timeline provides a unique opportunity for Oklo to refine and expand its offerings over time, he noted. “The lifespan of this Master Agreement will allow us to iterate and evolve with Switch, from development to deployment to scaling. We believe that working with Switch will not only accelerate our early powerhouses but also accelerate our ability to scale by demonstrating customer demand for decades to come.”

Sonal Patel is a POWER senior editor (@sonalcpatel@POWERmagazine).

NRC Statement on Passing of Former President Carter

Nuclear Regulatory Commission - News Release
No: 24-084 December 30, 2024
CONTACT: Office of Public Affairs, 301-415-8200

NRC Statement on Passing of Former President Carter

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission mourns the loss of Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States. President Carter exemplified a lifelong commitment to public service, innovation and safety and made extraordinary contributions to the nuclear community.

“President Carter’s legacy in the nuclear field serves as a powerful reminder of the importance of accountability, transparency and innovation in the safe use of nuclear technology,” said NRC Chair Christopher T. Hanson. “His work helped lay the foundation for the robust, effective regulatory framework we continue to uphold.”

President Carter’s leadership during the 1979 Three Mile Island accident remains a defining moment in NRC history. His selection of the NRC’s Harold Denton as the President’s personal representative provided stability during the worst of the event. President Carter’s leadership led to significant advancements in NRC regulatory oversight and safety protocols, many of which remain central to the agency’s mission today.

President Carter also oversaw a pivotal NRC reorganization that streamlined its operations and clarified the roles and authorities (particularly during emergencies) of the Chair, Commission and Executive Director for Operations. The changes enhanced the safety of nuclear power plants and other uses of nuclear materials.

For more information about the history and mission of the NRC, visit www.nrc.gov.

Braidwood, Byron, Calvert Cliffs, FitzPatrick, LaSalle, Limerick, Nine Mile, Peach Bottom - Summary of November 7, 2024, Meeting with Constellation Energy Generation on Planned Alternative Requests Regarding Reactor Vessel Closure St

Subject: Braidwood, Byron, Calvert Cliffs, FitzPatrick, LaSalle, Limerick, Nine Mile, Peach Bottom - Summary of November 7, 2024, Meeting with Constellation Energy Generation on Planned Alternative Requests Regarding Reactor Vessel Closure Studs (L-2024-LRM-0114)
 
ADAMS Accession No.: ML24351A082
 
 
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Braidwood, Byron, Calvert Cliffs, Clinton, Dresden, FitzPatrick, LaSalle, Limerick, Nine Mile, Peach Bottom, Quad Cities, and Ginna - Alternative Request to Use American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code

Subject: Braidwood, Byron, Calvert Cliffs, Clinton, Dresden, FitzPatrick, LaSalle, Limerick, Nine Mile, Peach Bottom, Quad Cities, and Ginna - Alternative Request to Use American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Case OMN-32

ADAMS Accession No.: ML24344A274


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Saturday, December 28, 2024

AMD - Constellation - Adoption of TSTF-591 (EPID L-2024-LLA-0046)

Subject: AMD - Constellation - Adoption of TSTF-591 (EPID L-2024-LLA-0046)

ADAMS Accession No.: ML24339B729


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Fukushima waste removal

https://www.newsofbahrain.com/world/106613.html 


Last year they tried this for the first time with robots.  A sample the size of a rasin was removed.  Now with "lessons learned"  they are trying again. 

Thursday, December 26, 2024

California state body approves rate increase for Diablo Canyon

 image.png

 December 23, 2024

California state body approves rate increase for Diablo Canyon life extension

By ExchangeMonitor
The California Public Utilities Commission last week approved $723 million in rate increases to let Pacific Gas & Electric Co. keep the state’s last nuclear power plant open through 2025, media reported.

The increases would cover operations of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant from Sept. 1, 2023 through Dec. 21, 2025. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) voted 4 to 1 to approve the increase in a public meeting held Dec. 19, according to the Los Angeles Times and other outlets. 

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PG&E) still needs approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to keep Diablo Canyon open. The NRC is considering a 20-year license extension and staff have said they could finish their review of the utility’s license extension application by August 2025 or so. 

The California commission so far has approved PG&E to keep the plant open for only five of the 20 years the utility could get tacked on to its federal.

PG&E’s operating licenses for Diablo Canyon Unit 1 expired on Nov. 2, but NRC has allowed the reactor to stay online while federal staff vet the utility’s license renewal application. Unit 2’s license will lapse on Aug. 26 2025. 

Antinuclear activists have opposed Diablo Canyon’s license extension both in federal court and as part of the NRC’s ongoing review.​​​​​​​

Where Will All of Big Tech’s Nuclear Waste Go?

https://gizmodo.com/where-will-all-of-big-techs-nuclear-waste-go-2000541209a

Nuclear waste is spread across 94 different nuclear sites in the U.S. and has no permanent home. Big Tech is going to add more to the pile.

Summary of November 22, 2024, Partially Closed Observation Meeting with Constellation Energy Generation, LLC Regarding Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Units 2 and 3 Digital Upgrade of the Emergency Core Cooling System Compensated

Subject: Summary of November 22, 2024, Partially Closed Observation Meeting with Constellation Energy Generation, LLC Regarding Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Units 2 and 3 Digital Upgrade of the Emergency Core Cooling System Compensated Level System


ADAMS Accession No.: ML24344A227
 
 
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Thursday, December 19, 2024

Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, Units 1 and 2 – Acceptance of Requested Licensing Action Re: LAR for ILRT interval and TS (EPID L-2024-LLA-0148)

Subject: Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, Units 1 and 2 – Acceptance of Requested Licensing Action Re: LAR for ILRT interval and TS (EPID L-2024-LLA-0148)

ADAMS Accession No.: ML24344A276


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Tuesday, December 17, 2024

NRC Issues Order Prohibiting Former Manager for Pennsylvania Firm from NRC-related Activities for Three Years

Nuclear Regulatory Commission - News Release
No: I-24-020 December 16, 2024
CONTACT: Diane Screnci, 610-337-5330
Neil Sheehan, 610-337-5331

NRC Issues Order Prohibiting Former Manager for Pennsylvania Firm from NRC-related Activities for Three Years

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is issuing an order prohibiting a former manager for a Pennsylvania radiography firm from involvement in NRC-licensed activities for three years due to deliberate misconduct. The order stems from a failure to adhere to safety requirements during radiography work conducted at a temporary job site in West Virginia.

Titan Inspection LLC, based in Montoursville, Pennsylvania, carried out industrial radiography activities in 2022 near Wheeling, West Virginia, and did not meet NRC requirements regarding radiographer staffing. An investigation by the NRC’s Office of Investigation determined that the radiographer assigned to the job and the former Titan manager were aware of the regulatory requirement but did not secure an assistant radiographer prior to performing work at the job site.

The NRC issued Severity Level III Notices of Violations to the company and the former radiographer earlier this year, as a result of the concerns identified.

Industrial radiography involves the use of a device containing nuclear material to check for cracks or flaws in materials that would not otherwise be visible.

Friday, December 13, 2024

ARC act - introduced in Senate

https://www.risch.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/pressreleases?ID=628A2843-553B-4E6B-8482-D80D15715EEB#:~:text=The%20ARC%20Act%20establishes%20a,energy%20projects%20to%20jumpstart%20commercialization.

Risch Introduces Bill to Accelerate New Nuclear Investment

December 4, 2024

WASHINGTON - U.S. Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho) today introduced the Accelerating Reliable Capacity (ARC) Act to accelerate investment in new commercial nuclear projects by minimizing cost overrun risk.

“We are at the cusp of unlocking a host of advanced reactor technologies, which are essential to meet growing domestic energy demands and strengthening our national security. While the U.S. has made significant investments in developing new nuclear reactors, the financial risk in moving from demonstration to commercialization is so significant, it impedes industry growth,” said Risch. “The ARC Act aims to mitigate that risk and ensure the U.S. remains the global leader in nuclear energy.”

Building new nuclear reactor technologies for the first time creates significant upfront cost and timing uncertainties, which make it challenging to attract investments. The ARC Act establishes a limited risk reduction program for building new commercial reactors by providing a backstop for unforeseen costs through enhanced financing terms. The program would benefit three or more next generation nuclear energy projects to jumpstart commercialization.

Senator Risch is a long-time advocate for nuclear energy. He has spearheaded legislation to increase domestic energy production, enhance national security, and keep the United States at the forefront of nuclear advancement. He is the founder and co-chair of the Senate Advanced Nuclear Caucus, which amplifies the critical role nuclear energy plays in the U.S. and explores emerging nuclear technologies.

"I commend Senator Risch for his longstanding support of nuclear energy and his commitment to our nation’s energy security and prosperity,” said John Wagner, Director of the Idaho National Lab. “The near-term expansion of nuclear energy is essential to meeting the dramatic demand growth for clean, reliable power necessary for our industrial sector and economic competitiveness. Providing additional certainty to early adopters will help mitigate risks for nuclear projects and encourage the investment needed to accelerate the deployment of new reactors."

"The Accelerating Reliable Capacity Act of 2024 is a pivotal step in addressing the financial barriers that have hindered the deployment of new nuclear reactors. With essential financing solutions, this legislation will accelerate the development of advanced nuclear technology, enhance U.S. energy independence, and strengthen our global leadership in clean energy innovation," said Maria Korsnick, president and CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute. "We commend Senator Risch's leadership on this critical issue and look forward to working with Congress to advance this important bill."

"The demand for clean, reliable energy is driving renewed interest in nuclear energy," said ClearPath Action CEO Jeremy Harrell. "The faster nuclear projects get off the ground the faster the U.S. can build critical technologies like data centers and new manufacturing facilities. The ARC Act seeks to supercharge the deployment of new nuclear projects to meet this need." 

Permalink: https://www.risch.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2024/12/risch-introduces-bill-to-accelerate-new-nuclear-investment

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

NEWS RELEASE: Mix of All Renewables Has Provided 90% of New U.S. Generating Capacity in 2024 YTD, Led by Solar (78%) and Wind (11%)

SUN DAY CAMPAIGN  

8606 Greenwood Avenue, Suite #2; Takoma Park, MD 20912-6656  
Twitter: Follow @SunDayCampaign  
   
   
Brief News Update & Analysis  
   
 
SOLAR IS 78% OF NEW US GENERATING CAPACITY YTD
AND THE LARGEST SOURCE OF NEW CAPACITY
FOR 13 MONTHS STRAIGHT
 
AT 11% OF NEW CAPACITY, WIND ADDED MORE
THAN NATURAL GAS & NUCLEAR POWER COMBINED
 
MIX OF ALL RENEWABLES HAS PROVIDED
90% OF NEW CAPACITY IN 2024 YTD

 
For Release:  Monday, December 2, 2024
 
Contact:         Ken Bossong, 301-588-4741
 
Washington DC – A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data newly released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reveals that the mix of renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) accounted for almost 90% of total U.S. electrical generating capacity added in the first three-quarters of 2024. Moreover, September was the thirteenth month in a row in which solar was the largest source of new capacity.


Renewables were 82.4% of new generating capacity in September and 89.6% in first three-quarters of 2024:

In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” (with data through September 30, 2024), FERC says 47 “units” of solar totaling 1,786 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in September along with two units of wind (156-MW) and one unit of hydropower (1-MW). Combined they accounted for 82.4% of all new generating capacity added during the month. Natural gas provided the balance: 410-MW. [1]

During the first nine months of 2024, solar and wind added 18,635-MW and 2,626-MW respectively. Combined with 213-MW of hydropower and 6-MW of biomass, renewables were 89.6% of capacity added. The balance consisted of the 1,100 Vogtle-4 nuclear reactor in Georgia plus 1,387-MW of gas, 11-MW of oil, and 8-MW of “other.”


Solar was 75.7% of new capacity in September and 77.7% during the first nine months of 2024:

Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for thirteen months straight: September 2023 – September 2024.

The new solar capacity added from January through September accounted for 77.7% of all new generation placed into service for the period.

In September alone, solar comprised 75.7% of all new capacity added.

Adjusting for the differences in capacity factors among solar, nuclear power, and natural gas, the new solar capacity added thus far in 2024 is likely to generate more than four times as much electricity as the new nuclear capacity and over five times as much as might be expected from the new natural gas capacity. [2]


Solar plus wind are now more than 21% of U.S. generating capacity; all renewables combined are 30.3%:

New wind capacity accounted for much of the balance YTD (10.9%) which is more than the new natural gas capacity (5.8%) and nuclear power capacity (4.6%) combined. New solar capacity is approximately seven and one-half times that of the combination of natural gas and nuclear power.

Taken together, the installed capacities of just solar (9.4%) and wind (11.8%) now constitute more than one-fifth (21.2%) of the nation’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity: wind – 11.8%; solar – 9.4%.

However, approximately 30% of U.S. solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that is not reflected in FERC’s data. [3] Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind closer to a quarter of the nation’s total.

With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%) and geothermal (0.3%), renewables now claim a 30.3% share of total U.S. utility-scale generating capacity.


Solar’s share of installed U.S. generating capacity is greater than either nuclear power or hydropower:

The latest capacity additions have brought solar’s share of total available installed utility-scale (i.e., >1-MW) generating capacity up to 9.4%, further expanding its lead over nuclear power (7.9%) as well as hydropower (7.7%).

Installed utility-scale solar has now moved into fourth place – behind natural gas (43.4%), coal (15.5%) and wind (11.8%) - for its share of generating capacity.


Solar will soon become the second largest source of U.S. generating capacity:

FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between October 2024 and September 2027 total 94,491-MW – an amount more than four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (22,711-MW), the second fastest growing resource. FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (1,290-MW), biomass (124-MW), and geothermal (90-MW).

Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources would total 118,706-MW with solar comprising nearly 80% and wind providing another 19%.  

On the other hand, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast while coal, oil, and natural gas are projected to contract by 19,863-MW, 2,244-MW, and 1,145-MW respectively.

If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by October 1, 2027, solar will account for nearly one-sixth (15.5%) of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.0%) or wind (12.6%) and substantially more than either nuclear power (7.4%) or hydropower (7.3%).

In fact, assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar is likely to surpass coal and wind within the next two years, placing solar in second place for installed generating capacity – behind only natural gas.

Meanwhile, the mix of all renewables is adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. Thus, by September 30, 2027, renewables would account for 36.7% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity - rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.3%) - with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity.


The combined capacities of all renewables, including small-scale solar, remain on track to exceed natural gas within three years:

As noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that is factored in, within three years, total U.S. solar capacity (i.e., small-scale plus utility-scale) is likely to surpass 300-GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then exceed 40% of total installed capacity while natural gas’ share would drop to about 37%.

Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 216,989-MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 66,308-MW of new wind, 9,131-MW of new hydropower, 199-MW of new geothermal, and 195-MW of new biomass. By contrast, net new natural gas capacity potentially in the three-year pipeline totals just 18,029-MW. Thus, renewables’ share could be even greater by early fall 2027.


"New solar capacity added in 2024 thus far will produce more electricity than will be generated by new nuclear power and natural gas additions," noted the SUN DAY Campaign's executive director Ken Bossong. "Unless derailed by the incoming Trump Administration, solar - which has now been top dog for 13 months straight - is poised to continue dominating capacity additions for at least the next three years." 
  
# # # # # # # # #  
   
Source:  
FERC's 6-page "Energy Infrastructure Update for September 2024" was released on November 29, 2024, and can be found at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-september-2024.

For the information cited in this update, see the tables entitled "New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion)," "Total Available Installed Generating Capacity," and "Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements."

Notes:   
[1] Generating capacity is not the same as actual generation. Fossil fuels and nuclear power generally have higher "capacity factors" than do wind and solar (see Note #2 below).

[2] EIA reports capacity factors in calendar year 2023 for nuclear power and combined-cycle natural gas plants were 93.0% and 59.7% respectively while those for wind and utility-scale solar PV were 33.2% and 23.2%. See Tables 6.07.A and 6.07.B in EIA's most recent "Electric Power Monthly" report. 

[3] In a September 12, 2023 news release, EIA states: “More than one-third of U.S. solar power capacity is small-scale solar. … We expect small-scale solar capacity … will grow from 44-GW in June 2023 to 55-GW by the end of 2024.” See: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2023/09-smallscalesolar/article.php

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The SUN DAY Campaign is a non-profit research and educational organization founded in 1992 to support a rapid transition to 100% reliance on sustainable energy technologies as a cost-effective alternative to nuclear power and fossil fuels and as a solution to climate change. Follow on Twitter (or “X”): @SunDayCampaign